Al DeMarco 15 Dime Pitt -7. He has prop bets if interested.
Al DeMarco Sunday's Pick
15 Dime - Steelers
If you've seen me on TV, heard me on radio, or followed my selections over the years, you know I believe teams that emphasize defense and strong ground games are those that win championships. They are often not the "sexy" teams - those that the public are enamored with - but they are more often than not the winning team, both on the field and at the betting window. Over the past year, this logic behind my selections of the Giants in last year's Super Bowl and Florida in the recent BCS title game.
Make no mistake, the public is in love with Arizona. The plotlines are everywhere as the Cardinals have come out of nowhere to knock off the Eagles, Panthers and Falcons, being led by a former Super Bowl-winning quarterback who was rescued from the junk heap. Plus, they've got the most exciting player on the field in Larry Fitzgerald, who practically single-handidly took down Carolina and Philly with his receiving exploits.
Throughout this postseason I've pointed out how the betting public has fallen hard for teams that have made an impact on television. The Ravens captivated gamblers with their defensive dominance of the Dolphins and Titans. The Chargers did the same with their highly-rated overtime upset of Peyton Manning's Colts. The Eagles were in a similar boat after knocking off the defending champion Giants on their home field, and now the Cardinals are in the spotlight for their upset of Philadelphia, which made believers out of those that were intially shocked by their road win at Carolina.
But, who knocked off the Chargers? Who knocked off the Ravens? You see the point I'm making, right? The Steelers delivered two workmanlike efforts worthty of the city of Pittsburgh's blue collar roots while winning both games. Nothing sexy for sure, but two solid performances keyed by the league's No. 1 ranked defense. Versus San Diego, Willie Parker carried the offensive load with a monster 145-yard performance. With Parker stymied by Baltimore's defense, Ben Roethlisberger stepped into the breach and managed a 16-for-33 effort for 255 yards and one touchdown, despite being sacked four times.
Roethlisberger's numbers pale in comparison to those put up by Kurt Warner, as the Arizona quarterback is coming off a 21-for-28 performance versus the Eagles for 279 yards and four touchdowns, giving him eight scoring passes in three postseason games. But Warner's effort, plus his reputation, along with Fitzgerald's receiving exploits are among the factors that give us tremendous line value in this contest.
Generally speaking, you get very little line value in the Super Bowl because the game is over-analyzed and over-hyped in the two weeks leading up to the contest. But in this case, you're getting the value because of Arizona's upsets of the Panthers and Eagles. Prior to the Conference title games, I thought Pittsburgh - who was my Best Bet against Baltimore - would be favored by 3 to 4 points over Philadelphia and 9 1/2 to 10 over Arizona, depending on who emerged from the NFC. Furthermore, I thought the Cardinals would be getting that many points only if they played a tremendous game and beat the Eagles decisively. Now you know why I consider a touchdown lay such a line value.
We all watched the Cardinals dominate Philadelphia in the first half, jumping out to a 24-6 halftime lead. We all watched Warner engineer the game-winning drive that rallied them from a 25-24 deficit with three minutes to play. But in-between, how many noticed how poorly Arizona played? This was a team that was held to eight yards in total offense in the third quarter of the game when the Eagles defense finally showed up to play, putting pressure on Warner constantly, flushing him out of the pocket and forcing him to hurry his throws. Philadelphia's offense put 19 unanswered points on the board as Donovan McNabb, who was dreadful in the first half, constantly throwing behind or over his intended targets, finally caught fire, finishing with 375 yards passing on a day he had no run support because Brian Westbook was hampered once again by a multitude of injuries.
Arizona's defensive collapse was no surprise as the Cardinals simply played to their expected level as this was a team ranked 28th in scoring defense this season with an average yield of 26.6 points per game. Compare that to Pittsburgh giving up a league-low 13.9 an outing and consider the Steelers stepped out of division to play the likes of the Eagles, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Titans, Jaguars and Redskins. On the other hand, skim over Arizona's biggest non-division games - the Redskins, Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, Giants, Eagles, Vikings and Patriots - and you'll see the Cards allowed 37.3 points on average in those contests.
Much has been made of Edgerrin James, who emerged from a half-season of hibernation to give the Cardinals some semblance of a ground game in their four-game march (including the regular season finale versus Seattle) to the Super Bowl. But James and backfield mate Tim Hightower are now facing the league's No. 2 ranked rushing defense, a unit that allowed 80.2 yards per game (3.3 ypc). It's true the Cardinals had some success running the ball against Philadelphia's fourth-ranked defense, but the Eagles had trouble stopping the run against numerous opponents this season in big games and compiled that high rank with standout performances against the mediocre portion of their schedule.
Pittsburgh's containment of Arizona's ground game will allow the Steelers, who had an AFC-leading 51 sacks in the regular season (2nd in the league behind Dallas), to put the pressure Warner, whose mobility is next to nothing. Unlike the Eagles, Pittsburgh's linebacker corps brings the heat as much as its front line which will limit the amount of time Warner - despite his fast release - will have to locate his receivers.
Defensively, Arizona is nothing special; its secondary was torched for league-high 36 touchdowns versus just 13 interceptions. Roethlisberger - so underrated in big games - will find the seams and keep the offense moving. His pass protection, although not the greatest, should be adequate against a pass rush that generated just 31 sacks in 16 regular season games. Plus, Roethlisberger is coming off that 255-yard performance versus the Ravens despite getting sacked four times. And unlike the Baltimore contest, he should get ground support from Parker, who is the healthiest he's been all season and facing an Arizona defense that allows 110 yards per game (4.0 ypc).
Dating back to that controversial finish versus the Chargers at home, the Steelers are on runs of 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. In terms of Super Bowl history, only seven times has the straight-up winner failed to cover, and in 42 previous games, 28 have been decided by double digits and 32 by seven or more points.
The public is enamored with Arizona's rags-to-riches story, but first-time Super Bowl participants are 5-11 ATS when battling a franchise that has played for the title previously. Ominously, the last such team in this position was Seattle in its Super Bowl loss to Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are 5-1 SU and ATS in previous championship game appearances. Roethlisberger's eighth straight ATS win in the postseason results in another Super Bowl triumph for this storied franchise.
Speaking of the line.... As I post this play Thursday morning, Pittsburgh is a solid -7. Obviously you buy the 1/2 point down to -6 1/2 so you get the cover should Pittsburgh only win by a touchdown.
As kickoff approaches, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line move upwards as the late public money will most likely be on Pittsburgh. If it moves to -7 1/2, buy the 1/2 point down to -7 so you get a push should Pittsburgh only win by a touchdown.
With that being said above, don't for a minute think that I don't realize that I'm asking you to spend additional funds - over and above the purchase of this selection - to essentially buy insurance on this pick. Myself, to be honest, I feel that the breaks always even out over the course of the year and in such situations it's a 50-50 proposition. Obviously there are no guarantees in gambling, but again, when you have the chance to hedge the odds in your favor for a small cost, it's worth the investment when the number is right around a touchdown.
One final note: As I mentioned on my homepage, this may be the Super Bowl, but it's just another game. It's not - and never should be - your biggest bet of the season. It's just a 15 dime play for me. To put that in perspective, it's bigger than my 10 Dime winner on Florida over Oklahoma in the BCS bowl, but it's smaller than my 30 Dime releases on the Eagles in Week 2 at Dallas on that Monday night in September. And it's no bigger than the previous 11 straight 15 dime winners I've delivered this season.
If you're reading this, you're a gambler and there's nothing wrong with that because I'm one too. But the key to gambling responsibly is doing it for entertainment. You should not be playing with this month's mortgage payment or the money you need to put food on your family's table.
Some guys like to go out on a Saturday night with their significant other to dinner and movie and drop an easy $100. That's entertainment, no different than taking that same $100 and putting it on the Steelers today. Taking a trip to your nearest casino with $250 in your pocket to play at the tables is entertainment, no different than laying that $250 across 10 prop plays today. Bottom line: Funds that are earmarked for enterainment are one thing; funds that essential for living should never be gambled with.
I don't mean to preach, and to 99% of you I know it appears I'm doing so, but after 25+ years in this business I can guarantee you that tomorrow I will get handful of emails from guys who lost their shirts on this game for no reason, guys who were former customers, current customers, or not even customers of mine. Some of these guys have seen me on TV or heard me on radio and will just write in; it's almost like going to church and offering up a confession. Gamblers Anonymous is a tremendous organization and I'm sure they help a tremendous number of people in the next week, but if I can help some guys in advance, I feel it's my responsibility to do so as well because it's the morally right thing to do.
This business isn't about making money or winning money; it's about educating gamblers on how to play games, how to weather the inevitable losing streaks and how to capitalize on the winning streaks.
Proposition Plays>
It's estimated that proposition bets account for 1/3rd of the Super Bowl wagering in Nevada. Considering last year's handle on the Giants-Patriots was 92.1 million, it's a hefty sum.
In my various media interviews in the week between the Conference Finals and Super Bowl, I'm often asked my opinion regarding numerous prop plays of which there are literally hundreds to choose from. Listed below are my favorites, but understand that
none of them are rated, and very few of them I will be personally wagering on. I'm making my money on the side, not prop plays with limited action.
Generally, the best value props are the even-money plays or underdogs; you don't want to be betting outrageously priced favorites which would be the equivilent of betting a -175 chalk in baseball.
The items in
underlined are what I consider my favorite among all of the releases. I've listed some odds for you to give you an idea of what the prices are. Naturally they will be different depending on where and when you play, and not all of these plays are even available at all sportsbooks.
One more thing: Make sure you shop around for prop plays; you will find differences across the board. For example, below I list a play regarding the total yards gained by Edgerrin James. On Thursday, when I released these plays, the number I saw was 42.5. But on Friday, I saw another sportsbook that had the price posted at 49.5. That a huge 7-yard differential when you consider I like the under for that particular prop.
Again, these are not rated and just my educated opinion based on handicapping all aspects of the game.
Props Involving Ben Roethlisberger
Total Passing Yards Over 230.5 Even
Completions Over 17.5 -115
Total Rushing Yards Over 1.5 -105
Props Involving Willie Parker
Total Rushing Yards Over 80.5 -115
Total Carries
Over 20.5 -145
Props Involving Troy Polamalu
Total Tackles (solo & assisted)
Over 4.5 -105
Props Involving Edgerrin James
Total Rushing Yards
Under 42.5 Even
Props Involving Larry Fitzgerald
Total Receptions
Over 6.5 Even
Adjusted Game Lines
Steelers
-3 1/2 -155
Steelers
-14 1/2 +210
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
Most Pass Attempts Warner (-8 ½) -115
Super Bowl MVP
Ben Roethlisberger +175
Willie Parker +700
Historical Matchup
Total passing yards - Kurt Warner - Super Bowl 34 vs. Super Bowl 43
Super Bowl 43 +148.5 yards
Note: Warner had 415 passing yards in Super Bowl 34. Thus he must throw for 267 in-game yards for me to win since I'm getting 148.5 yards at the start of the game.
More TV Viewers - Super Bowl 43 vs. 40
Super Bowl 43 -150
FYI - Super Bowl 40 (Seattle-Pittsburgh) had 90.7 million viewers on ABC
How many times will Al Michaels & John Madden reference Ben Roethlisberger as "Big Ben" during the game
Under: 7 1/2
National Anthem Length
Over 1:54 (sung by Jennifer Hudson)
Don't snicker - I gave you the easy Over on last year's anthem sung by fellow American Idol alum Jordin Sparks
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